Here is my thought: as of now there are 150,000 people signed up just to be beta testers for the thing. That means they are already commited to spending the 50 dollars for their first year. This doesn't even include all of the people that don't bother with stuff like that/don't know about stuff like that/ or haven't been drawn into the xbl scene yet. I'll be happy with 149,999 people during the week to play with, personally.
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